The Global Week Ahead

Trump to Host Putin in Alaska in a Bid for Ukraine Peace, The Deadline for the End of the US – China Tariff Pause Looms, and Markets Get Ready for A Busy Economic Calendar

Aug 10, 2025

August 10 - 17, 2025

While most of us were looking forward to a quiet August and some time away from the office and our computer screens, the month is proving to be jam-packed with major geopolitical events and a steady stream of breaking news headlines.

With that in mind, this coming week, arguably one of the biggest events of the year will take place when President Trump hosts Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine. The question of the day is whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be invited to attend the Friday meeting, too, as European leaders are urging Trump to extend an invitation to him.

Considering the initial terms of any ceasefire seem to be allowing Russia to keep Ukrainian land it has seized over the last three years - including Crimea - you would think the Ukrainian President should be present. Zelensky has already rejected the idea of ceding any Ukrainian land to Russia.

Markets and Western leaders intently watch the lead-up to Friday’s meeting (markets and policymakers seem to be bracing for the high likelihood of surprise twists, turns, and demands from Putin in the next few days before the summit) and what might or might not come of it all.

But markets are also focused on Tuesday when the pause on tariffs between China and the US is set to expire. The pause put in place by President Trump brought the tariffs down from 145% to 30% for US tariffs and from 145% to 10% for Chinese tariffs on US goods. As to whether President Trump will again extend the pause is unclear at this point but seen as likely – perhaps another 90 days – as a way to further warm up relations between Beijing and Washington.

But one complication could be President Trump’s ramping up of tariffs on India for purchasing sanctioned Russian oil, which in turn impacts China as it will likely lead to higher oil prices and raise the question of when Trump will place tariffs on China, which also purchases sanctioned Russian oil and gas.

Another aspect of the Trump tariff efforts is likely to be announced sometime this week, too, when the President announces the results of Section 232 investigations in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. It is expected he will slap heavy tariffs on both sectors, perhaps as high as 150% on pharmaceuticals and 100% on semiconductors.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a busy week of data releases and reports. In the US, the July CPI report is out on Tuesday, PPI is out Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment for August is out Friday. On top of these three big reports, we will see retail sales figures and industrial production numbers out on Friday.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Monday. China released inflation data on Saturday (which was reported as being flat). This coming Friday, China will be releasing its house price index, industrial production numbers, retail sales, and unemployment figures. And Japan will be releasing PPI on Wednesday and Q2 GDP figures on Friday.

Moving over to Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey and CPI are released on Tuesday, and the UK releases Q2 GDP figures on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 11, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security: Prevention, innovation and international cooperation to address emerging challenges.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump will hold a press conference to address crime in Washington, D.C. Trump may announce his intention to call out the National Guard to help enforce a crackdown on crime.

· Peru's President Dina Boluarte visits Japan and Indonesia.

· The US Congress is in recess for the month of August and returns September 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Industrial Production (June)

· Canada BoC Market Participants Survey

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam's General Secretary To Lam and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will hold a bilateral summit part of Lam's four-day state visit to South Korea through Wednesday. Lam will be the first foreign leader hosted by Lee since the South Korean president took office in June, and the visit comes at a time of blossoming bilateral ties.

· Today is Mountain Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

· Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)

· Malaysia Construction Output Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Salzburg Festival 2025 begins and runs through August 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Balance of Trade (June)

· Slovakia Construction Output (June)

· Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

· Italy Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

· Russia Balance of Trade (June)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· OPEC releases its monthly report on oil production.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The temporary pause agreed to between the US and China on trade tariffs expires.

· Uruguayan unions will conduct a partial strike to oppose the wage adjustment for public sector workers.

· Mexico hosts a U.N. conference on the status of women in Latin America and the Caribbean.

· In French Guiana, the Ariane 6 rocket launch, carrying EUMETSAT’s Metop-SGA1 satellite, the first of the next generation of European polar-orbiting weather satellites.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin addresses the Health Management Academy at the Four Seasons Hotel Chicago.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ Redbook (August/09)/ Fed Schmid Speech/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/08)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (July)

· Canada Building Permits (June)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

· India Inflation Rate (July)

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Norway’s sovereign wealth fund releases an updated list of its holdings in the 9,000 companies it is invested in worldwide, plus second-quarter results, at a press conference in Arendalsuka, Norway.

· Armenia and the US will hold joint military exercise in Armenia – The Eagle Partner 2025 – through August 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)/ Claimant Count Change (July)

· Ireland Construction PMI (July)

· Romania Inflation Rate (July)

· Turkey Current Account (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ ZEW Current Conditions (August)/ Current Account (June)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)/ Unemployed Persons Q2

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Angola Wholesale Prices (June)

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Global

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its monthly oil production report for all OECD member countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce in Greenville, South Carolina.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at a lunch hosted by the state central bank alongside the Franklin County Economic Development Authority

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks on regional monetary policy at a lunch, hosted by the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/08)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/08)

· Brazil Retail Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

· Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

· Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

· Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

· Singapore Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY

· Australia Home Loans Q2/ Investment Lending for Homes Q2/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q2

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· China Vehicle Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Wholesale Prices (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (July)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

· Romania Current Account (June)

· Serbia Current Account (June)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union – AIP Water Investment Summit 2025 begins in Cape Town, South Africa and runs through August 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (June)

Thursday, August 14, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Venezuelan unions will stage demonstrations against government repression in Caracas..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a webinar conversation hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/02)/ PPI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/08)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/14)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/13)

· Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Hong Kong, the trial of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai reconvenes for closing arguments. The founder of the pro-democracy news outlet Apple Daily, which was forced to close in 2021, has been held in solitary confinement for nearly 1,700 days under the controversial national security law that China imposed on the city. Western governments and human rights groups have called for his release.

· Pakistan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)

· Australia Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

· India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)

· Kazakhstan GDP (July)

· China New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)/ GDP (June)/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ Construction Orders Q2/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Labour Productivity Q2/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

· Hungary Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

· France Inflation Rate (July)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)

· Poland Inflation Rate (July)

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

· Russia Current Account Q2

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (July)

· Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Friday, August 15, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump to meet his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in Alaska to discuss a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine conflict.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (June)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Expectations/ Conditions Prel (August)/ Business Inventories (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/15)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives a speech at the Red Fort in Delhi to mark the anniversary of India’s independence from British rule in 1947.

· Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to deliver his first State of the Nation Address, in which he will explain the government's priority programs for the coming year. The speech will also include key economic targets, highlighting the administration's fiscal direction under his leadership. The address comes ahead of Indonesia's 80th Independence Day celebrations on Sunday.

· Madagascar will host the 45th summit of the Southern African Development Community in Antananarivo. The members of the Community include Angola, Botswana. Comoros , Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar , Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique. Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa. Tanzania. Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

· Beijing hosts the 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games, the first global sporting event dedicated solely to humanoid robots, which runs until Sunday.

· Today is Independence Day in South Korea. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ Food Inflation (July)/ Visitor Arrivals (June)

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/09)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/09)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

· China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ FDI (YTD) (July)

· Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2

· India Bank Loan Growth (August/01)/ Deposit Growth (August/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (June)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Liechtenstein National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (July)

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

· Serbia Building Permits (June)

· Turkey Budget Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa will hold its first-ever National Convention with political, business, and civil rights groups.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

§ India celebrates Janmashtami, a Hindu festival marking the birth of Krishna, the eighth avatar of Vishnu, featuring dramatic re-enactments of the life of Krishna throughout Mathura and Vrindavan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Global

· Today is the 80^th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

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